World Football Elo · post-final ratings

Power Rankings

The 48 teams by their world Elo rating, set against how far they actually got. The gap between where a side was seeded and where it finished is the story — who punched above their rating, and who went home early with a great one.

Overachievers

Finished far above their seed.

Morocco

seeded #14 · reached Quarter-final

Switzerland

seeded #11 · reached Quarter-final

Belgium

seeded #10 · reached Quarter-final

Norway

seeded #9 · reached Quarter-final

Canada

seeded #30 · reached Round of 16

Fell short

Strong on paper, home too soon.

Netherlands

seeded #8 · reached Round of 32

Colombia

seeded #5 · reached Round of 16

Portugal

seeded #6 · reached Round of 16

Brazil

seeded #7 · reached Round of 16

Germany

seeded #13 · reached Round of 32

The board

All 48, ranked by Elo. Bar is the rating; the badge is measured in rounds vs what the seed expected (seeds 1–2 should make the final, 3–4 the semis, 5–8 the quarters…) — ▲ went further, ▼ fell short.

SeedTeamEloRatingFinish±

Spain★2259Champions▲ +1 2

Argentina2173Runners-up— 0 3

England2125Semi-final— 0 4

France2070Semi-final— 0 5

Colombia2003Round of 16▼ -1 6

Portugal1995Round of 16▼ -1 7

Brazil1993Round of 16▼ -1 8

Netherlands1971Round of 32▼ -2 9

Norway1951Quarter-final▲ +1 10

Belgium1948Quarter-final▲ +1 11

Switzerland1928Quarter-final▲ +1 12

Mexico1913Round of 16— 0 13

Germany1908Round of 32▼ -1 14

Morocco1901Quarter-final▲ +1 15

Japan1888Round of 32▼ -1 16

Croatia1882Round of 32▼ -1 17

Ecuador1871Round of 32— 0 18

Türkiye1852Group stage▼ -1 19

Uruguay1841Group stage▼ -1 20

Austria1821Round of 32— 0 21

Senegal1816Round of 32— 0 22

Paraguay1814Round of 16▲ +1 23

Australia1795Round of 32— 0 24

IR Iran1764Group stage▼ -1 25

Algeria1756Round of 32— 0 26

USA1747Round of 16▲ +1 27

Scotland1745Group stage▼ -1 28

Egypt1742Round of 16▲ +1 29

Sweden1731Round of 32— 0 30

Canada1729Round of 16▲ +1 31

Côte d'Ivoire1727Round of 32— 0 32

Korea Republic1723Group stage▼ -1 33

Congo DR1704Round of 32▲ +1 34

Czechia1680Group stage— 0 35

Panama1658Group stage— 0 36

Uzbekistan1631Group stage— 0 37

Jordan1628Group stage— 0 38

Cabo Verde1619Round of 32▲ +1 39

Bosnia and Herzegovina1605Round of 32▲ +1 40

Saudi Arabia1596Group stage— 0 41

Ghana1570Round of 32▲ +1 42

Tunisia1562Group stage— 0 43

Iraq1561Group stage— 0 44

South Africa1559Round of 32▲ +1 45

New Zealand1534Group stage— 0 46

Haiti1517Group stage— 0 47

Curaçao1438Group stage— 0 48

Qatar1411Group stage— 0

Biggest upsets

Every knockout result where the lower-rated side won, ranked by the Elo gap they overturned.

Paraguay beat Germany1–1 (4–3 pens)Round of 32 75

Switzerland beat Colombia0–0 (4–3 pens)Round of 16 70

Morocco beat Netherlands1–1 (3–2 pens)Round of 32 53

Egypt beat Australia1–1 (4–2 pens)Round of 32 42

Norway beat Brazil2–1Round of 16

Elo gap = the losing side's rating minus the winner's. Higher = bigger shock. Penalty-shootout wins count — the side that advanced is the winner.