Compare

Two cards, one radar, zero opinions. Gold is player one, chalk is player two.

Player one — solid gold

Player two — dashed chalk

Pick two players to settle the argument. Tip: the URL updates, so you can share the comparison.

the rematch machine · 10,000 simulations

Who would have won?

Any two teams, simulated from what they actually did this tournament — xG created and conceded per match, sharpened by Elo. Not destiny, just the odds.

France 26%draw 27%Argentina 48%

In a knockout tie, Argentina goes through 63% of the time (extra time at a third of the rate, penalties a coin flip).

Most likely scorelines

1:1FRA 1 — ARG 112.3%

0:1FRA 0 — ARG 111.8%

0:2FRA 0 — ARG 29.1%

Expected goals: FRA 1.01 · ARG 1.50

Every scoreline

012345+091295181295246533245+

FRA down the side, ARG across the top, cells in %.

Method: Poisson goals from tournament xG for/against per match vs the field average, Elo-adjusted. Backtested on all 104 real matches, the model's favourite 90'-outcome happened 63% of the time (in-sample; draws are hard). Form only — no lineups, no injuries, no narratives.