MUNDIAL·26

Round of 32 · Monday, June 29 · Houston Stadium, Houston · 68,777 in the stands

kickoff 12:00 local · 34°C · 65% humidity · roofed stadium

Brazil

56 CASEMIRO (pen)

90+5 GABRIEL MARTINELLI (pen)

2:1

Japan

29 Kaishu SANO (pen)

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Brazil4-3-3
Japan3-4-2-1
ALISSON6.2GABRIEL MAGALHAES8.0MARQUINHOS7.0DANILO5.9DOUGLAS SANTOS7.3CASEMIRO7.8BRUNO GUIMARAES7.9LUCAS PAQUETA6.8VINICIUS JUNIOR7.4MATHEUS CUNHA6.5RAYAN7.2Zion SUZUKI6.8Shogo TANIGUCHI7.1Hiroki ITO6.2Takehiro TOMIYASU6.9Ritsu DOAN6.2Daizen MAEDA7.1Keito NAKAMURA6.3Junya ITO7.0Daichi KAMADA6.1Kaishu SANO7.3Ayase UEDA5.8
from the bench

match pulse — xG per 5 minutes · goals · cards

4590105101BRAJPN

goals — hover the strip for every shot and card, with names

  • 29Sano0.12 xG
  • 56Casemiro0.29 xG
  • 90+6Martinelli0.43 xG
BRA 0:0 JPN0'kickoff
2' Guimarães — xG 0.05 · Blocked10' Guimarães — xG 0.06 · Blocked14' Cunha — xG 0.06 · Missed14' Guimarães — xG 0.02 · Missed16' Kamada — xG 0.09 · Blocked28' Ueda — xG 0.05 · Missed29' Sano — xG 0.12 · Goal34' Vinicius — xG 0.04 · Saved35' Paquetá — xG 0.06 · Blocked38' Cunha — xG 0.02 · Saved45' Ito — xG 0.03 · Blocked45 + 1' Paquetá — xG 0.06 · Blocked52' Guimarães — xG 0.07 · Saved53' Endrick — xG 0.08 · Missed54' Casemiro — xG 0.32 · Blocked56' Casemiro — xG 0.29 · Goal58' Vinicius — xG 0.31 · Saved58' Cunha — xG 0.10 · Missed64' Ueda — xG 0.04 · Saved74' Rayan — xG 0.07 · Blocked77' Martinelli — xG 0.03 · Missed89' Vinicius — xG 0.02 · Blocked90 + 4' Fabinho — xG 0.02 · Missed90 + 6' Martinelli — xG 0.43 · Goal

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The xG race — cumulative expected goals, minute by minute

BRA 0:0 JPN
1.02.0015304560759029' Sano — GOAL56' Casemiro — GOAL90 + 6' Martinelli — GOAL2.110.33

On paper vs as played — formation sheet vs heatmap reality

BRA 4-3-3 attack →, ← JPN 3-4-2-1 attack. The teamsheet, as announced.

1ALISSONALISSON3GABRIEL MAGALHAESGABRIEL MAGALHAES4MARQUINHOSMARQUINHOS13DANILODANILO16DOUGLAS SANTOSDOUGLAS SANTOS5CASEMIROCASEMIRO8BRUNO GUIMARAESBRUNO GUIMARAES20LUCAS PAQUETALUCAS PAQUETA7VINICIUS JUNIORVINICIUS JUNIOR9MATHEUS CUNHAMATHEUS CUNHA26RAYANRAYAN1Zion SUZUKIZion SUZUKI3Shogo TANIGUCHIShogo TANIGUCHI21Hiroki ITOHiroki ITO22Takehiro TOMIYASUTakehiro TOMIYASU10Ritsu DOANRitsu DOAN11Daizen MAEDADaizen MAEDA13Keito NAKAMURAKeito NAKAMURA14Junya ITOJunya ITO15Daichi KAMADADaichi KAMADA24Kaishu SANOKaishu SANO18Ayase UEDAAyase UEDA

The duel — team data, FIFA tracking included

62%
Possession
30%
2.12
Expected goals
0.26
72
Threat
28
19
Shots
5
7
On target
2
652
Passes completed
279
40
Forced turnovers
34
16.9s
Ball recovery time
26.0s
6.51
High-press phases
2.15
10
Fouls committed
4
1
Offsides
0
110 km
Distance covered
115 km
33.8 km/h
Top speed
33.3 km/h

Territory — where each team lived

Every player's heatmap, minutes-weighted and stacked per team. Brazil attack →, Japan attack. Brighter is more presence; where the colors meet is the contested ground.

How it happened

  1. 12Kaishu SANO (Japan) is booked by the referee.
  2. 14CASEMIRO (Brazil) is booked by the referee.
  3. 29Kaishu SANO (Japan) scores!!
  4. 45Daichi KAMADA (Japan) is booked by the referee.
  5. Before the second half begins ENDRICK (in) comes off the bench to replace LUCAS PAQUETA (out) (Brazil)
  6. 48DANILO (Brazil) is booked by the referee.
  7. 56CASEMIRO (Brazil) scores!!
  8. 65GABRIEL MARTINELLI (in) comes off the bench to replace MATHEUS CUNHA (out) (Brazil)
  9. 66Junnosuke SUZUKI (in) comes off the bench to replace Keito NAKAMURA (out) (Japan)
  10. 66Yukinari SUGAWARA (in) comes off the bench to replace Ritsu DOAN (out) (Japan)
  11. 78Shuto MACHINO (in) comes off the bench to replace Junya ITO (out) (Japan)
  12. 78Ao TANAKA (in) comes off the bench to replace Daichi KAMADA (out) (Japan)
  13. 84Junnosuke SUZUKI (Japan) is booked by the referee.
  14. 90+1FABINHO (in) comes off the bench to replace CASEMIRO (out) (Brazil)
  15. 90+5GABRIEL MARTINELLI (Brazil) scores!!
  16. 90+7Koki OGAWA (in) comes off the bench to replace Daizen MAEDA (out) (Japan)
  17. 90+7DANILO SANTOS (in) comes off the bench to replace BRUNO GUIMARAES (out) (Brazil)

The morning-after column · AI-written from the match data

Brazil Scrape Past Japan as Killer Instinct Finally Arrives

Japan's game plan of compact defending and rapid counters nearly yielded a startling upset. An early goal at 29' caught Brazil unprepared. Yet the pattern quickly reasserted itself: Brazil's possession and press smothered the contest. With 62% of the ball and 6.5 high-press phases to Japan's 2.1, the home side ground down their opponent across the middle two thirds. Brazil's build-up play recovered the ball every 16.9 seconds; Japan laboured at 26. The shape of the match was Brazilian control waiting for clinical finishing.

The numbers explained the 2-1 scoreline: Brazil's expected goals of 2.12 against Japan's 0.26 reflected a chasm in chance creation. Yet Brazil nearly paid the price for profligacy. At 54' a clear-cut opportunity went begging (xG 0.32, blocked); at 58' another dissolved under pressure (xG 0.31, saved). Gabriel Magalhaes and Bruno Guimarães imposed order at centre-back and midfield throughout. Late in added time, a final thrust breached Japan's exhausted shape for the winner. Control with a fortune clause attached.

Brazil created 2.12 expected goals to Japan's 0.26, a gap reflecting utter dominance, yet required added time to overcome squandered precision.

90+6

Brazil's added-time breakthrough proved decisive after two gilt-edged chances went begging.

What Brazil needed

Dominated but danced with catastrophe; conversion finally came.

  • High-press intensity (6.5 phases vs 2.1) won control of midfield battle
  • Ball recovery time of 16.9s vs Japan's 26s dictated tempo throughout
  • Two big chances at 54' and 58' (xG 0.32, 0.31) nearly proved fatal

What Japan needed

Gutsy early lead squandered by unequal pressing and recovery metrics.

  • Only 2.1 high-press phases vs Brazil's 6.5 left the midfield overrun
  • Ball recovery time of 26.0 seconds conceded possession dominance unchecked
  • Created just 0.26 xG—rare chances must be converted (not 0.12 gifts)