MUNDIAL·26

First Stage · Group F · Sunday, June 14 · Dallas Stadium, Dallas · 69,285 in the stands

kickoff 15:00 local · 29°C · 73% humidity · roofed stadium

Netherlands

50 Virgil VAN DIJK (pen)

64 Crysencio SUMMERVILLE (pen)

2:2

Japan

57 Keito NAKAMURA (pen)

88 Daichi KAMADA (pen)

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Netherlands4-3-3
Japan3-4-2-1
Bart VERBRUGGEN5.7Virgil VAN DIJK7.9Jan Paul VAN HECKE6.9Micky VAN DE VEN6.3Denzel DUMFRIES6.5Ryan GRAVENBERCH8.0Tijjani REIJNDERS6.8Frenkie DE JONG6.8Cody GAKPO7.0Donyell MALEN6.8Crysencio SUMMERVILLE7.2Zion SUZUKI6.2Shogo TANIGUCHI6.8Tsuyoshi WATANABE6.7Hiroki ITO6.4Takefusa KUBO7.2Ritsu DOAN6.2Daizen MAEDA6.6Keito NAKAMURA7.8Daichi KAMADA7.4Kaishu SANO6.1Ayase UEDA6.7
from the bench

match pulse — xG per 5 minutes · goals · cards

4590NEDJPN

goals — hover the strip for every shot and card, with names

  • 51van Dijk0.06 xG
  • 57Nakamura0.02 xG
  • 64Summerville0.02 xG
  • 89Kamada0.14 xG
NED 0:0 JPN0'kickoff
3' Malen — xG 0.13 · Saved28' Ito — xG 0.03 · Missed34' Malen — xG 0.08 · Saved34' Van De Ven — xG 0.02 · Missed36' Gakpo — xG 0.17 · Missed43' Nakamura — xG 0.05 · Missed45' Ueda — xG 0.10 · Missed51' van Dijk — xG 0.06 · Goal57' Nakamura — xG 0.02 · Goal64' Summerville — xG 0.02 · Goal67' Kubo — xG 0.03 · Missed73' Gakpo — xG 0.02 · Saved73' van Hecke — xG 0.12 · Saved75' Nakamura — xG 0.01 · Missed76' Koopmeiners — xG 0.07 · Blocked78' Ogawa — xG 0.02 · Missed80' Sugawara — xG 0.16 · Saved88' Ogawa — xG 0.03 · Blocked89' Kamada — xG 0.14 · Goal90 + 3' Koopmeiners — xG 0.09 · Missed

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The xG race — cumulative expected goals, minute by minute

NED 0:0 JPN
0.5015304560759051' van Dijk — GOAL57' Nakamura — GOAL64' Summerville — GOAL89' Kamada — GOAL0.780.59

On paper vs as played — formation sheet vs heatmap reality

NED 4-3-3 attack →, ← JPN 3-4-2-1 attack. The teamsheet, as announced.

1Bart VERBRUGGENBart VERBRUGGEN4Virgil VAN DIJKVirgil VAN DIJK6Jan Paul VAN HECKEJan Paul VAN HECKE15Micky VAN DE VENMicky VAN DE VEN22Denzel DUMFRIESDenzel DUMFRIES8Ryan GRAVENBERCHRyan GRAVENBERCH14Tijjani REIJNDERSTijjani REIJNDERS21Frenkie DE JONGFrenkie DE JONG11Cody GAKPOCody GAKPO18Donyell MALENDonyell MALEN24Crysencio SUMMERVILLECrysencio SUMMERVILLE1Zion SUZUKIZion SUZUKI3Shogo TANIGUCHIShogo TANIGUCHI16Tsuyoshi WATANABETsuyoshi WATANABE21Hiroki ITOHiroki ITO8Takefusa KUBOTakefusa KUBO10Ritsu DOANRitsu DOAN11Daizen MAEDADaizen MAEDA13Keito NAKAMURAKeito NAKAMURA15Daichi KAMADADaichi KAMADA24Kaishu SANOKaishu SANO18Ayase UEDAAyase UEDA

The duel — team data, FIFA tracking included

55%
Possession
37%
0.63
Expected goals
0.34
57
Threat
43
10
Shots
9
6
On target
2
473
Passes completed
302
33
Forced turnovers
28
14.2s
Ball recovery time
22.3s
1.98
High-press phases
1.63
6
Fouls committed
7
1
Offsides
0
103 km
Distance covered
109 km
35.6 km/h
Top speed
33.5 km/h

Territory — where each team lived

Every player's heatmap, minutes-weighted and stacked per team. Netherlands attack →, Japan attack. Brighter is more presence; where the colors meet is the contested ground.

How it happened

  1. 50Virgil VAN DIJK (Netherlands) scores!!
  2. 57Keito NAKAMURA (Japan) scores!!
  3. 61Crysencio SUMMERVILLE (Netherlands) is booked by the referee.
  4. 64Crysencio SUMMERVILLE (Netherlands) scores!!
  5. 66Junya ITO (in) comes off the bench to replace Daizen MAEDA (out) (Japan)
  6. 70Memphis DEPAY (in) comes off the bench to replace Donyell MALEN (out) (Netherlands)
  7. 70Quinten TIMBER (in) comes off the bench to replace Tijjani REIJNDERS (out) (Netherlands)
  8. 70Teun KOOPMEINERS (in) comes off the bench to replace Crysencio SUMMERVILLE (out) (Netherlands)
  9. 75Takehiro TOMIYASU (in) comes off the bench to replace Tsuyoshi WATANABE (out) (Japan)
  10. 75Koki OGAWA (in) comes off the bench to replace Takefusa KUBO (out) (Japan)
  11. 75Yukinari SUGAWARA (in) comes off the bench to replace Ritsu DOAN (out) (Japan)
  12. 81Nathan AKE (in) comes off the bench to replace Ryan GRAVENBERCH (out) (Netherlands)
  13. 83Memphis DEPAY (Netherlands) is booked by the referee.
  14. 84Kento SHIOGAI (in) comes off the bench to replace Ayase UEDA (out) (Japan)
  15. 84Brian BROBBEY (in) comes off the bench to replace Cody GAKPO (out) (Netherlands)
  16. 88Daichi KAMADA (Japan) scores!!
  17. 90+1Micky VAN DE VEN (Netherlands) is booked by the referee.

The morning-after column · AI-written from the match data

Netherlands wasteful, Japan steal a point from chaos

Netherlands commanded Dallas with 55% possession and a suffocating press (2.0 high-press phases, forcing 33 turnovers), but squandered a gilt-edged 36th-minute chance. Japan, reduced to 37% possession and dawdling recovery times of 22.3 seconds, surrendered territory at will. Yet the match pivoted on clinical finishing: Gravenberch and van Dijk's dominance at midfield and rear went unrewarded when low-probability strikes found the net—Netherlands' second goal arrived from just 0.02 xG at the 64th mark. Japan, seemingly overwhelmed, equalised twice: first from chaos at 57', then Nakamura's composed defence cracked when a 0.14 xG chance sailed past at 89'.

The numbers tell a damning story for Ronald Koeman. Netherlands' 0.63 xG return of two goals masked the 36th-minute miss (0.17 xG)—had Summerville or another converted there, the shape changed entirely. Japan's arithmetic was equally peculiar: 0.34 xG became two goals, a variance that Keito Nakamura (7.8 rating) absorbed through positioning rather than perfect marking. The pace of this match, driven by Netherlands' ball-recovery speed (14.2 seconds versus Japan's laboured 22.3), suggested control. Instead, both sides finished as if playing with eyes closed. Japan's 3-4-2-1 never imposed threat but lasted through Daichi Kamada's workrate in midfield, whilst van Dijk's 7.9 rating went unmolested until chaos opened late.

Japan converted twice from 0.34 expected goals, whilst Netherlands' 0.63 xG yield produced two goals and one glaring miss—a study in finishing variance.

89

Japan's late equaliser from 0.14 xG, a chance materialised from defensive frailty

What Netherlands needed

Dominance squandered; clinical finishing must improve immediately.

  • Miss the 36' sitter (0.17 xG) and you don't control the scoreline—higher standards required
  • Score twice from 0.63 xG yet concede from 0.34; the 2.0 high-press phases justify intensity, not complacency
  • Gravenberch's 8.0 rating means midfield mastery; ensure forwards are equally sharp

What Japan needed

Resilient but can't bank on 0.34 xG returning two goals again.

  • 22.3-second recovery under 55% possession is unsustainable; sharper pressing reduces their workload
  • Nakamura's 7.8 rating held the line despite chaos—but relying on defensive heroics rather than shape is perilous
  • Late chances (0.14 xG) won't always arrive at 89'; need to generate threats earlier